I. THE WORLD ECONOMY

Mr Speaker Sir,

17. The world economy during 2002 continues to adjust to the adverse shocks of the previous year. Although a global recovery led by the United States has been under way with trade and industrial production picking up, world output is projected to grow by only 1.6% in 2002, from 2.2% at end 2001. Furthermore, the world output is predicted to grow to 2.5% in 2003, and if the world recovery continues steadily as it has began, world output may even go up to 3.1% in the year 2004.

18. These positive figures are owed much to an aggressive policy response, particularly following the events of September 11 2001, in turn made possible by the improvement in economic fundamentals during the 1990's. Other contributing factors included the decline in oil prices in 2001; the resilience of the global financial infrastructure to a variety of substantial shocks; and a degree of good luck, in that the impact of the terrorist attacks on confidence proved short lived.

19. World trade volume during 2002 increased markedly from 0.1% in 2001 to 2.1% and in 2003, it is projected to increase by a further 6.1%. Economic growth in Africa is projected to rise from an estimated 3.1% in 2002 to 4.2% in 2003. Inflation is projected to fall to single digits for the first time ever in 2002 to an estimated 9.6%, declining slightly to 9.5% in 2003. Against this encouraging backdrop, net private capital flows to Africa are expected to increase in 2003.

20. Interest rates are expected to remain low until well into 2003 in a sustained low-inflation scenario although, since early August 2002, spot oil prices have risen to $25 per barrel from a figure of $24.4 in 2001, owing to concerns about a further deterioration in the security situation in Middle East. However it is predicted that by the year 2003, the price of oil will fall to $23 per barrel.

21. Growth in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) was hampered by serious problems in certain parts of the continent; most importantly a deepening famine in Southern Africa, conflict, drought, the AIDS epidemic, and macroeconomic imbalances. Nevertheless, growth in world GDP will support growth in SSA and hence the latter's growth rate is expected to increase from 2.5% in 2002 to 3.2% in 2003. Even in the low-case scenario, growth in 2003 is projected at 2.8%.

22. We must reiterate the importance of globalisation and the interdependence of all countries of the world, and of the need to join together in the fight to protect the future of our children and that of generations to come. To this end, The Gambia has unflinchingly committed itself to contribute to the international fight against terrorism. Hence, like most Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, we have been able to accede to all the major treaties relating to terrorism and we are currently in the process of implementing UN Resolution 1373. Our National Assembly has also ratified several Agreements in this context, and preparations are at an advanced stage for the tabling of the Anti-money Laundering Bill geared towards preventing financing for terrorism.

Mr Speaker, Sir,

23. It was on September 11th 2001 that the world finally came to recognise that there are not two worlds - rich and poor. There is only one. We are linked by finance, trade, migration, communication, the environment, communicable diseases, crime, drugs and certainly by terror. Today, more and more people are saying that poverty anywhere is poverty everywhere - and their voices are getting louder. Their demand is for a global system based on equity, human rights and social justice. The world is beginning to listen.

24. We have seen a year in which the commitments reached at Doha, Monterrey and Johannesburg have laid a new basis for a global deal. The development community has confirmed the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) such as reducing infant mortality, access to basic education and health for all. We have set 2015 as the deadline for our results. If the goals of 2015 are to be achieved each of us must act now. In doing so, we must recognise that development is not about quick fixes. Bringing lasting change requires vision. It requires time and patience. It requires a long-term commitment, focus and discipline. And it requires us to measure effectiveness.

25. What must each of us do? The developed countries must deliver on the Doha Agenda. We know that the barriers to trade are too high. They must bring down the tariffs and cut back the non-tariff barriers that all too often are out-right protectionism. We also know that agricultural subsidies in rich countries, at $1 billion per day, squander resources and profoundly damage opportunities for poor countries to invest in their own development. There should be a fixed timetable for their elimination.

Mr Speaker, Sir,

26. The developing countries must on their part, continue to build capacity, good governance and institutions, to push ahead with legal, judicial and financial reforms and to invest in our people. We too must focus more on results-oriented outcomes and managing programmes so that growth and poverty reduction goals can be achieved. Actions by governments of developing and developed countries together with international institutions are only part of the solution. We must all do more to enhance the role of civil society and the private sector. The new multilateral ideology must include the voices of the private sector and civil society. We must all be more accountable. Better partners. Better listeners. Better deliverers and we must keep track of our actions.

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